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Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 on City Revenues
The file below includes key data points from our analysis projecting the extent to which city revenues have been impacted by the response to COVID-19.
Data Dictionary
| Category | Column Header in CSV | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Background Information | City | City name. |
| County | Name of the county where the city is located. | |
| Final Results of Our Analysis | Total Estimated Revenue Changes in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | Sum of estimated changes for hotel taxes, sales and use taxes, business license taxes, parking taxes, and admissions taxes by city for fiscal years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 for revenues affected by COVID-19. |
| Total COVID-19 Related Revenue Changes | Sum of estimated changes for hotel taxes, sales and use taxes, business license taxes, parking taxes, and admissions taxes by city for fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. This number aims to capture revenue decreases that occurred for some cities during the height of the pandemic. | |
| American Rescue Plan Act Allocation | The amount of federal stimulus funds that cities will receive. For smaller cities this is an estimated allocation amount from the California Department of Finance. For metropolitan cities—generally cities with populations larger than 50,000—these numbers are allocation amounts from the U.S. Treasury Department. | |
| Total Property Tax Changes in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | Sum of estimated property tax changes by city for fiscal years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22. | |
| Data From City's Audited Financial Statements* | 2018-19 General Fund Revenues | Revenues deposited in a city's general fund, the main operating fund of a city government. |
| Hotel Tax Analysis | Hotel Taxes as a Percentage of Total Revenue | Transient occupancy tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities. |
| Estimated 2018-19 Hotel Tax Revenue | Hotel taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues. | |
| Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Hotel Tax Revenue** | Change value provided by our consultant based on actual hotel tax data for fiscal year 2019-20. | |
| Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Hotel Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2021-22 Forecasted Change to Hotel Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Total Forecasted Change to Hotel Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 hotel tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 estimated change to hotel tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the estimated 2018-19 hotel tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 forecasted change to hotel tax revenue. We repeated these steps for fiscal year 2021-22. We then added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 to arrive at the total forecasted change to hotel tax revenue for all three fiscal years. | |
| Sales and Use Tax Analysis | Sales and Use Taxes as a Percentage of Total Revenue | Sales and use tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities. |
| Estimated 2018-19 Sales and Use Tax Revenue | Sales and use taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues. | |
| Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Sales and Use Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Sales and Use Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2021-22 Forecasted Change to Sales and Use Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Total Forecasted Change to Sales and Use Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 sales and use tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 forecasted change to sales and use tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the estimated 2018-19 sales and use tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21-forecasted change to sales and tax revenue. We repeated these steps for fiscal year 2021-22. We then added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 to arrive at the total forecasted change to sales and use tax revenue for all three fiscal years. | |
| Business License Tax Analysis | Business License Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue | Business license tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities. |
| Estimated 2018-19 Business License Tax Revenue | Business license taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues. | |
| Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Business License Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Business License Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2021-22 Forecasted Change to Business License Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Total Forecasted Change to Business License Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 business license tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 forecasted change to business license tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the estimated 2018-19 business license tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change to business license tax revenue. We repeated these steps for fiscal year 2021-22. We then added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 to arrive at the total forecasted change to business license revenue for all three fiscal years. | |
| Admissions Tax Analysis | Admissions Tax Analysis Admissions Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue | Admissions tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities. |
| Estimated 2018-19 Admissions Tax Revenue | Admissions taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues. | |
| Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Admissions Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Admissions Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2021-22 Forecasted Change to Admissions Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Total Forecasted Change to Admissions Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. Estimated fiscal year 2018-19 admissions tax revenue multiplied by the forecasted change for fiscal year 2019-20. To compound the values, we then added the 2018-19 estimated admissions tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change. We repeated these steps for fiscal year 2021-22. Finally, we added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 to arrive at the total forecasted change for all three fiscal years. | |
| Parking Tax Analysis | Parking Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue | Parking tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities. |
| Estimated 2018-19 Parking Tax Revenue | Parking taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues. | |
| Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Parking Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Parking Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2021-22 Forecasted Change to Parking Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Total Forecasted Change to Parking Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. Estimated fiscal year 2018-19 parking tax revenue multiplied by the forecasted change for fiscal year 2019-20. To compound the values, we then added the 2018-19 estimated parking tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change. We repeated these steps for fiscal year 2021-22. Finally, we added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 to arrive at the total forecasted change for all three fiscal years. | |
| Property Tax Analysis | Property Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue | Property tax totals divided by total estimated tax revenues from State Controller data. |
| Estimated 2018-19 Property Tax Revenue | Property taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues. | |
| Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Property Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Property Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2021-22 Forecasted Change to Property Tax Revenue** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Total Forecasted Change to Property Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 property tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 forecasted change to property tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the 2018-19 estimated porperty tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change to property tax revenue. We repeated these steps for fiscal year 2021-22. Finally, we added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 to arrive at the total forecasted change to property tax revenue for all three fiscal years. | |
| Property Transfer/Document Transfer Taxes | Property Transfer/Document Transfer Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue | Property transfer/document transfer tax totals divided by total estimated tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities. |
| Estimated 2018-19 Property Transfer/Document Transfer Taxes | Property transfer/document transfer taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues. | |
| Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Property Transfer/Document Transfer Taxes** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Property Transfer/Document Transfer Taxes** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Fiscal Year 2021-22 Forecasted Change to Property Transfer/Document Transfer Taxes** | Forecast value provided by our consultant. | |
| Total Forecasted Change to Property Transfer/Document Transfer Taxes Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 | A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 property transfer/document transfer tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 forecasted change to property transfer/document transfer tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the 2018-19 estimated property transfer/document transfer tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change to property transfer/document transfer tax revenue. We repeated these steps for fiscal year 2021-22. Finally, we added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 and 2021-22 to arrive at the total forecasted change to property transfer/document transfer tax revenue for all three fiscal years. |
* Click here for the list of cities excluded from this analysis.
** The California Economic Forecast developed the economic forecasts that we used to project revenue reductions, which included range minimums, midpoints, and maximums by revenue source by county. This value is the range midpoint that we used for our final analysis because it is the most accurate projection according to the California Economic Forecast. Click here to read more about our methodology.
Economic Forecasts by Revenue Type and County
The files below includes the forecasts provided by our consultant, the California Economic Forecast. The first file includes forecasts of hotel taxes, sales and use taxes, business license taxes, property taxes, and property transfer/document transfer taxes for fiscal years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 by county.
The second file includes forecasts for admissions taxes and parking taxes for fiscal years 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 by city. As we describe in our methodology, parking taxes and admissions taxes apply only to a small number of cities.
Forecasts of the revenue sources are based on regional economic activities representing the particular spending by consumers or businesses that generate the particular city taxes. The economic activity data is actual information through fiscal year 2019-20 and for at least the first half of fiscal year 2020-21. Forecasts of regional economic activity are produced based on statewide forecasts of the same economic activity through 2023. These forecasts are from the UCLA Anderson Forecast for California which is updated 4 times a year.
